Warren Hammond’s Personal View: McKinley vs. Trump

1 Views

The Personal View has long argued that the 2015 – 2033 period echoes the 1895 – 1913 era; both shaped by transformation, disruption, innovation and deep structural change.

At the center of each era? Two remarkably aligned presidents, namely William McKinley(1897 – 1901) and Donald Trump (2017 – 2021, 2025+). This idea has been at the heart of Warren Hammond’s Personal Views and thoughts, ideas and insights since first expressing this view in 2016.

Here’s why the parallels matter – for politics, markets and investors:

1. Trade Protectionism: McKinley’s Dingley Tariff raised duties to a record 52%. Trump’s trade war imposed 25%+ tariffs (especially on China), with a 10% universal tariff proposed for 2025.

2. Economic Nationalism: Both emphasised domestic production, strategic autonomy, and correcting trade imbalances.

3. Technological Disruption: McKinley had electrification and industrial expansion. Trump’s era mirrors this with AI, EVs, and the disruptive rise of Musk (the modern Ford?).

4. Isolationist Tendencies: McKinley prioritised national interest. Trump pulled the US from global pacts like the Paris Accord, WHO, and TPP.

5. Structural Shifts: The Panic of 1907 led to the birth of the Federal Reserve. Post-2020 liquidity may trigger a financial system reset of its own.

6. Threats to Power: McKinley was assassinated. Trump survived multiple attempts, including the 2024 shooting at a rally.

7. Party Recalibration: Both reshaped the Republican Party, around tariffs, nationalism, strong executive leadership, and business-first policies.

Implications?

• Continued support for oil, gas, gold, copper and agriculture.
• In a fragmented world order (like the post-McKinley colonial period), expect increased defense exposure, risk premiums, and value in non-correlated assets (real assets, volatility hedges, etc).