Political analysts say Rasool’s extensive experience may not be enough to bolster the ANC’s campaign ahead of the upcoming elections.
The Western Cape is a lost cause to the ANC, whether or not South Africa’s former ambassador to the US, Ebrahim Rasool, comes to its rescue.
Political analysts argue that Rasool could not gain ground for the ANC when he was previously the provincial leader in the province. They added that it will be more difficult now because many Western Cape voters, particularly coloureds, have found new and more attractive political homes.
The Western Cape, which has been dominated by the DA for 16 years, has become a formidable challenge for the ANC.
Can Rasool rescue the ANC?
The analysts believe that even Rasool’s potential involvement, with his extensive experience, diplomatic prowess, and his role as the province’s former leader, may not be enough to bolster the party’s campaign efforts in the upcoming elections.
The landscape is increasingly challenging now with new dynamics. The ANC faces an uphill battle to reclaim ground that has slipped from its grasp since the DA ousted it in 2009.
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Independent political analyst, Goodenough Mashego, gives the ANC no chance of reclaiming the Western Cape. Asked if Rasool could rescue the party now that he had returned after his controversial exit as the country’s envoy in Washington, Mashego said: “The return of Rasool is not going to get them the votes. The ANC used to own the coloured votes in the Western Cape because of Alan Boesak and others, but it has since lost those votes to other parties.
“It would be unwise of the ANC to impose a coloured leader merely to win an election. Many coloured people had permanently abandoned the ANC and joined other parties, old and new.
“I think the Western Cape is a lost cause for the ANC, I don’t think Rasool is going to salvage them,” he said.
Mashego said the ANC lost the plot when it put black African leaders instead of coloured ones in the forefront after those leaders toppled Rasool as the ANC provincial chairperson. He said Rasool’s exit left a vacuum that would be difficult for anyone to fill.
He said many of the ANC’s coloured voters were disgruntled after Rasool’s removal and joined other parties, such as the DA, Independent Democrats, Patriotic Alliance and other coloured-inclined parties.
ANC recovery ‘highly unlikely’
This view was shared by political economy analyst Daniel Silke, who said it’s too late for the ANC to even imagine retaking the Western Cape.
“It’s a very long haul for the ANC to claw back any semblance of hope that it can get close to a majority in the Western Cape. Western Cape voters have systematically left the ANC in previous elections, with the last election being its lowest performance for the party to date. I think the ANC’s recovery, ultimately, to a position of threatening the DA is highly unlikely,” Silke said.
He added that the ANC brand had been severely dented, both in the Western Cape and nationwide. The province itself has an additional dynamic that complicates the ANC position. The DA, the Patriotic Alliance and other smaller parties have “provided potential ANC voters with other choices and perhaps more attractive choices as well”.
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Mashego said the ANC has lost ground in the province since Boesak’s days in the Western Cape, and the party is unlikely to recover soon. If Rasool were to return as the face of the ANC in the province, he would have no choice but to carry the coloured race card in an attempt to attract voters, but that could tarnish his image and damage his legacy.
“Rasool is a coloured person, but I don’t think he is capable of really building very strong structures of the ANC that can contest the DA and other coloured parties,” Mashego said.
Rasool better suited to national politics
He suggested that Rasool should be deployed at the national level, perhaps at the Department of International Relations and Co-operation, where his experience as a former ambassador would be better used.
According to Silke, Rasool was not universally liked within the Western Cape ANC during his reign as provincial leader and premier. Instead, the ANC became divided and polarised around him.
“So, in terms of being a unifying candidate, it’s not a given that he can achieve that. I think we are in for fragmented politics in the Western Cape – the DA clearly remains the ascendant power in the Western Cape. However, I think for the ANC it’s a hard slog and an unlikely slog to think that it could get back into the seat of power unless it is part of a much broader coalition following a surprise decline for the DA, but I don’t necessarily see that happening in any dramatic form in the near future,” he said.
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