Analysts say Floyd Shivambu’s party is unlikely to gain the popularity of the EFF and MK party.
Former uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party secretary-general Floyd Shivambu’s plan to launch a new political party may bring him some support, but it won’t have the mass appeal of the EFF, let alone MK, according to experts.
They believe Shivambu is not as populist or charismatic as EFF leader Julius Malema or former president and MK leader Jacob Zuma, whose parties are the fourth- and third-largest parties in the country, respectively.
Rather, they say, Shivambu is a thinker and strategist who is skilled at working behind the scenes, but not a front-line leader.
Shivambu, was removed as secretary-general by Zuma on the pretext that he would be redeployed to the National Assembly, but was subsequently excluded from the list of nine party members to be sworn in as MPs this week.
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Some regard his removal as “constructive dismissal” and part of Zuma’s revenge after Shivambu led an EFF campaign against state capture in which Zuma was a prime suspect.
They said his sidelining indicates that in the ongoing public spat between Shivambu and Duduzile Zuma-Sambudla, Zuma has chosen his daughter’s side because “blood is thicker than water”. This is despite the fact that Zuma had earlier condemned Zuma-Sambudla’s behaviour towards Shivambu and forced her to make a public apology to him or face disciplinary action.
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Independent political analyst Sandile Swana said: “I don’t see Shivambu’s party becoming bigger than the EFF. Of course, there will be people who will move from MK and elsewhere to join Floyd.
“He will get a measure of support, but probably his ambition is to lead the country. That is not going to happen,” Swana said.
Another independent analyst Goodenough Mashego said as someone who is not a populist or a great orator, Shivambu would not be able to attract members.
“To put it bluntly, there is no space for whatever Floyd is trying to start. There is no vacuum that Floyd is going to fill,” he said.
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Shivambu announced last week that he would establish a political party although he remained an MK member. He said he would undertake a consultation process, including listening to different stakeholders before launching the party.
Mashego said Shivambu might face an ideological dilemma as a leftist in trying to appeal to a cross-section of the audience as many South Africans are centrist and want centrist policies. In light of the global outlook, such an approach would make him unpopular with investors and the international community.
Shivambu is also an avowed Lennist-Marxist scholar.
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