Analysts say he wants to exploit the factions.
While it looks impossible that former president Jacob Zuma could ever return to the ANC, there is a move towards restoring the ANC to its “glory days” through a merger with the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party and others, but all will be on Zuma’s terms, experts say.
However, such a merger if it happens is not meant to benefit the people, but to prop up Zuma and get out of his troubles.
For that to happen it would involve removing President Cyril Ramaphosa through a faction that supports an alliance with the MK and not with the DA, says independent political analyst Sandile Swana.
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Factional sympathetic support
This sentiment was expressed by fellow analyst Zakhele Ndlovu, politics lecturer at the University of KwaZulu-Natal, who said that if the faction sympathetic to Zuma wins a future ANC election, he could be back to lead the party.
He said Zuma by himself had no chance of returning to the ANC, but as the ANC was no longer the same, he could make a return by collaborating with factions within the ANC.
“The ANC is no longer what it used to be. If a faction aligned with or sympathetic to Zuma wins the next elective conference or if the ANC continues to lose support and sees the need to regain the support it lost to the MK, then the ANC can bring him back. But that can only happen as long as Zuma is still alive.” Ndlovu said.
Swana said there were some in the ANC who imagined the ANC’s “glory days” when the party had the majority and they would like to restore that glory.
To regain a parliamentary majority they would need to ensure the MK merged with the ANC.
Swana said the local government election in 2026 was bound to be another opportunity for the MK to “ravage the ANC and strip it of its remaining support in the local municipalities” and force it to agree to a merger with the MK on Zuma’s terms.
This would be the only option for the ANC instead of allowing itself to be eaten piecemeal by the MK, he said. The process involves weakening the EFF and swallowing it up.
Then the smaller parties would be easy to co-opt into the MK. Ultimately all the black parties – MK, the current ANC, EFF and smaller parties would then be collapsed to form a renewed ANC.
All this is Zuma’s idea but is bound to fizzle out should he not be around before his dream is realised.
Resistance from Ramaphosa’s Camp
Swana’s statement aligned with weekend news reports that Zuma plans to take back the ANC, reinstate his ANC membership and unite the black parties under the MK banner.
He was speaking after the ANC national disciplinary committee of appeal upheld the earlier decision to expel Zuma from the party late last week.
Ndlovu said the MK’s first anniversary rally on 15 December in Durban was billed to be a show of force by Zuma that he enjoyed a mass following.
“I think it is Zuma’s attempt to show that his party is growing and attracting non-Zulu speakers. His decision to appeal his expulsion is an attempt to divide the ANC because he knows he still has sympathisers within the ANC,” Ndlovu said.
According to Swana: “So strong is this renewal programme that the black parties targeted to form one consolidated ANC under Zuma’s leadership dominated by the Nkandla faction.
“They think it is something that can happen, which is why they would have liked to weaken the EFF, even if it means the EFF joins the MK in desperation – that it has no option other than being eaten alive.”
Swana envisaged huge resistance to Zuma’s master plan from Ramaphosa’s supporters who have the backing of big business propping up the Ramaphosa and government of national unity with financing.
With business digging deeper into their pockets for him, Ramaphosa’s current term is likely to perform better than his previous sixth administration as statistics have already begun to indicate.
“So, my perspective for as long as business is financing the DA and the ANC of Ramaphosa, Zuma has a very long road to travel to retrieve the ANC from the clutches of the DA and BLSA. He has so many scandals,” Swana said.
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