Some political analysts believe the EFF could try to take advantage of tensions between the ANC and DA.
The ANC is seeking support for an increase in value-added tax (VAT), as Minister of Finance Enoch Godongwana proposed in his latest budget speech.
On Wednesday, Godongwana proposed increasing VAT from 15% to 16% over the next two years.
However, some of the ANC’s coalition partners in the government of national unity (GNU) have voiced their concerns at this increase.
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The ANC needs support from other parties
This leaves the ANC with a numbers problem since the party only has 159 parliamentary seats. For the budget to pass, the ANC will need 201 votes.
Many analysts have questioned where the ANC will receive the additional 42 votes.
Speaking to The Citizen on Friday, Sanet Solomon from the University of Free State says the ANC might have to seek support from opposition parties such as the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party and the EFF.
“The ANC might reach out to parties like the EFF and MK go negotiate and gather their support for the budget, but it is unlikely that they would succeed in this endeavour. Both the EFF and MK have been rather vocal about how this budget would disproportionately affect poor South Africans,” Solomon said.
The MK party and EFF have already expressed their unhappiness with the VAT hike. But some analysts believe that opposition parties could use the discord in the GNU to their advantage.
Will the GNU collapse?
Despite this Solomon believes that the GNU will survive the current impasse over the budget.
“It is unlikely that the tabling of this budget could result in the end of the GNU. It would succeed in widening the gap between GNU partners and further weakening this already fragile coalition,” she said.
Does VAT hike goes against statement of intent?
Solomon said it is unlikely that even the IFP would vote for the proposed budget in its current form.
“It is unlikely that the IFP would support the ANC in voting for this budget as believes that the increase would go against the GNU’s commitment to reduce the cost of living. Should this condition be removed, it is likely that they would be open to voting in favour of an amended budget without the VAT increase,” she said.
What happens if the budget is not passed?
The deadlock over the passing of the national budget is the first of its kind for South Africa and could have serious ramifications.
“South Africa has never experienced this before and it could cause political chaos which may ultimately result in discussions about alternative coalitions.
“Something that may be concerned is the amendment of the existing budget which is allowed as per the Money Bills Amendment Procedure and Related Matters Act,” Solomon said.
Initially, Godongwana proposed a 2% VAT increase, but GNU partners were outraged and the initial budget speech had to be postponed.
“A 2% increase in VAT would negatively impact the most vulnerable societies in South Africa, making basic goods unaffordable. This is problematic given that 63% of the country is already living in poverty,” she said.
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