Why South African coffee prices are set to skyrocket in 2025. Let’s delve in and find out.
South Africans hoping for relief at their favourite coffee shops are in for a rude awakening. The latest inflation data shows that coffee prices are continuing to climb, and experts warn the worst is yet to come.
Even though South Africa’s headline inflation hit a five-year low, coffee lovers aren’t seeing any benefits. According to Stats SA, consumer price inflation (CPI) dropped from 3.2% in February 2025 to 2.7% in March 2025, a sharper decline than analysts expected. The last time inflation reached such low levels was in June 2020, when it fell to 2.2%.
Lower fuel costs and softer tuition inflation contributed to the drop, Stats SA said. However, food and non-alcoholic beverages (NAB) prices tell a different story.
Coffee prices refuse to cool down
While the annual rate for food and NAB edged down slightly from 2.8% to 2.7% in March, certain products still delivered a nasty shock to consumers. Vegetables, fruits and nuts, cereals, meat, and fish saw rising inflation. Meanwhile, categories like oils, dairy products, cold drinks, and desserts showed slight relief.
But coffee lovers? They’re still feeling the squeeze.
Even though the hot beverages category posted a minor decline in March, inflation remained painfully high at 14.4%. Coffee led the surge, with prices shooting up 18.8% — only marginally lower than February’s 19% spike.
Coffee prices have recorded double-digit inflation in all but five of the past 32 months since August 2022, highlighting how deeply entrenched these cost increases have become.
Global supply problems fuel local coffee Price increases
The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) confirmed the bad news in a new report, revealing that world coffee prices in 2024 surged by 38.8% compared to the previous year.
Experts predict no slowdown in 2025. In fact, some roasters and suppliers have already hiked prices by up to 30% to cope with rising costs.
The FAO cited several alarming reasons behind the spike:
Limited exports from Vietnam, which suffered a 20% drop in coffee production and a 10% fall in exports for a second straight year.
Reduced output from Indonesia, where excessive rains destroyed coffee cherries, slashing production by 16.5% and exports by 23%.
Weather disruptions in Brazil, the world’s top coffee producer, that continue to threaten supply.
Since Brazil and Vietnam produce nearly half of the world’s coffee, any disruptions there reverberate across the global supply chain — and land heavily on South African consumers.
Global shipping costs and supply chain disruptions are pushing prices even higher, with ongoing trade tensions in the U.S. under the Trump administration adding extra volatility to global markets.
Local experts: Expect higher prices, Even scarcer supply
Local roaster Quaffee echoed the FAO’s warnings, painting a grim picture for South African coffee drinkers.
Quaffee explained that multiple factors are driving up costs, including:
Production shortages
Rising tariffs
Increased costs for fertilizers and labour
Soaring global demand, especially from China’s booming middle class
Currency fluctuations
“Coffee is traded in US dollars, and the dollar’s strength relative to producing countries’ currencies impacts prices,” said Quaffee. The South African rand’s recent volatility only worsens the situation, making coffee imports even more expensive.
Structural problems mean higher prices for the long haul
Beyond the immediate challenges, Quaffee pointed to longer-term structural issues threatening coffee production worldwide.
“Climate shifts are making coffee cultivation more challenging, as coffee plants are sensitive to temperature and rainfall changes. This has reduced productivity in traditional growing regions,” Quaffee said.
Other persistent problems include:
Ageing coffee trees yielding smaller harvests
Ageing farming populations
Younger generations showing little interest in coffee farming
These problems suggest that even if inflation cools elsewhere, coffee prices could stay elevated for years.
South African roasters already raising prices
Quaffee confirmed that it had little choice but to hike its own prices between 20% and 30% by the end of February 2025.
“Whenever the cost of raw materials increases, the price of the final product must also rise. For us, the final product is coffee beans,” Quaffee explained.
After enduring price increases of 40% to 70% on raw coffee and consumables over the past eight months, the roastery reached a tipping point.
“We must remain financially and environmentally sustainable,” Quaffee said, adding that if prices keep climbing without stabilization, more increases may follow.
Stay tuned with The South African as we explain why South African coffee prices are set to skyrocket in 2025.
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