On 8 March 2021, with gold trading at $ 1,690/oz (R31,074), I recommended investors buy and accumulate the metal. Readers can refer back to my posts on that date, and since then, to familiarise themselves with what has become a long-standing and personally defining recommendation.
The Case for Gold’s Ascent
A thoughtful question was recently asked of me by a Middle East–based institutional private credit fund manager: “Could a slew of trade agreements trigger a sharp pullback in the gold price?”
While I acknowledge the potential for short-term price fluctuations, I remain confident that the structural drivers supporting gold’s long-term ascent remain firmly intact.
Since that original recommendation, gold has moved materially higher. The $3,000 (R55,161) price target reached in early 2025 was upgraded to $5,000 (R91,935) on 26 February 2025, with a 12-month horizon.
Do I expect volatility? Certainly, a 5 – 8% correction is part of any healthy trend. But I do not anticipate a crash, even amid trade accords.
The Broader Macro Context
To fully appreciate this view, one must consider the broader macro framework. In January 2016, I published “The USA – Major Themes 2015–2033”, arguing that this period would echo the historic transformation of 1895–1913, a time of seismic shifts in industry, finance, geopolitics, and technology.
Consider the parallels:
- Trade Protectionism – McKinley’s 1897 tariffs vs. today’s US-China duties
- Energy Transition – Coal and electrification then, renewables and EVS now
- Tech Disruption – Model T, plastics, and radio vs. AI, quantum, and robotics
- Immigration Shifts – Labour realignment then and now
- Financial Reset – The Panic of 1907 led to the Fed; today’s system is again overstretched
- Isolationism – Then and now, a pullback from global integration
In both eras, gold plays a stabilising role, not speculative, but a pillar of trust and monetary credibility.
Today:
- Central banks (Asia & Middle East) are stockpiling gold
- De-dollarisation is accelerating
- Supply constraints tighten the market (fewer discoveries, higher costs, underinvestment)
- Geopolitical fragmentation boosts demand for a neutral store of value
Trade breakthroughs may soften headlines, but they don’t cure structural excess, fiscal fragility, or currency erosion. They reconfigure, not resolve.
Why Gold Remains Essential
Gold remains essential: a portfolio cornerstone, and a hedge, not just against inflation or conflict, but against systemic dysfunction, volatility, and monetary decline.
That’s why my forecast stands: $5,000 (R91,935) within 12 months (from 26 Feb 2025).
This isn’t merely a price call – it’s a thesis shaped since March 2021, rooted in macro history, geopolitics, and structural insight.
The path to $ 5,000 (R91,935) is open. Who’s positioned for it?
What’s your take on gold’s trajectory? Do you see $ 5,000 (R91,935) as realistic or too ambitious? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
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