June and July 2025 will shape up to be two of the most geopolitically intense, heated, and combustible months in recent geopolitical memory, with acts of terror and war escalating.
From Washington to Warsaw, Gaza to Islamabad, Khartoum to Kyiv, the geopolitical temperature is rising. Tensions are no longer simmering. They’re flashing.
Lessons from 2020: How Volatility Creates Opportunity
The last time I viewed the world in this way was 4th February 2020, whereby I prepared (on the short side) for a seismic geopolitical event to disrupt markets, at which point I communicated a selective short basket of airline, shipping, logistics, cruise line, hotel, and theme park-oriented stocks. This short basket was held until 6th April 2020, at which time, turning bullish, it was covered, and I built a net long in the S&P500, placing a 5+ year target of 8,500 on the index, a call rooted in structurally bullish high conviction during extreme volatility. At the time, all was communicated via The Personal View.
Over the past decade, The Personal View has predicted major inflexion points in global stability, including:
– The storming of Capitol Hill on 6 January 2021
– The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022
Both events were forecast in magnitude and timing. The signals were there. They are here again.
Rising Flashpoints: A Tide of Global Instability
What’s unfolding now is a sharp escalation in the risk of terrorism, military confrontation, sabotage, and politically driven violence. This is not a call on a single event, but a recognition of a rising tide of instability spanning regions.
Hotspots to watch:
– Ukraine & Eastern Europe: Russian aggression continues; NATO mobilisation intensifies.
– Middle East: Iran-Israel tension, asymmetric threats, and proxy volatility.
– India & Pakistan: Fragile calm masking deep structural risk.
– Sudan, Congo, Ethiopia, Myanmar: Fragile states with regional contagion potential.
– Western cities: Heightened alert around lone-wolf and coordinated attacks.
This is not about fear. It’s about foresight.
Markets Are Missing the Message
The Netherlands is hosting a critical NATO summit amid this intensification. The symbolism is clear: the West is no longer reacting, it is preparing. Alliances are being tested. Defence strategies are shifting.
And yet, global markets remain largely focused on rate cuts and inflation, underpricing the true driver of risk this summer: global instability.
This may not be a season defined by a single headline. It may be defined by a drumbeat of escalating events, destabilising, violent, and politically consequential.
For investors, executives, and policymakers: Now is the time to recalibrate portfolios, assumptions, and geopolitical expectations.
June and July 2025 are a season of aggression. The world is on edge. And in a moment like this, ignoring the tension is the most dangerous strategy of all.
What are your thoughts on the unfolding geopolitical risks? We invite you to share your perspectives, analysis, or questions in the comments below.
Let us know by leaving a comment below, or send a WhatsApp to 060 011 021 1
Subscribe to The South African website’s newsletters and follow us on WhatsApp, Facebook, X and Bluesky for the latest news.
