Where investors should look next

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In January 2016, I published “The USA-Major Themes 2015-2033”, forecasting that this period would mirror 1895-1913, a pivot era of industrial, geopolitical, and financial transformation.

Since then, I’ve reiterated this forecast and as the cycle progresses, I have highlighted the following.

Striking similarities:

1. Trade Protectionism: McKinley’s 1897 Dingley Tariff raised duties to 52%, the highest in US history. In 2018, the US-China trade war saw 25% tariffs on steel, 10% on aluminium, and duties on $360B+ of Chinese goods. As of March 25, 2025, the Trump administration has implemented a 20% tariff on Chinese imports.

2. Energy Transition: From coal fueling US electrification (129M tons in 1880 to 517M by 1910) to today’s surge in renewables, now supplying 25% of US electricity (8.24 quadrillion BTUs in 2023).

3. Tech Disruption: Ford’s Model T revolutionised mobility (8,000 cars in 1900 vs. 1.7M in 1916). Today, Tesla leads as EV sales rise from 550K in 2015 to 6.6M in 2021. Back then, consider the revolution of electric lighting, x-rays, plastic, and radio. Today, consider the transformative innovations of AI, robotics, quantum computing, and space tech.

4. Immigration & Decentralisation: In 1910, 14.7% of Americans were foreign born. By 2025, that number will reach 15.8%, the highest since 1890. Immigration reshapes labour markets and cities. Today’s trend is exacerbated by affordability shifts and remote work dispersion.

5. Panama Canal: Post 1898, the US took control of the Panama Canal. A critical trade artery. Today, that same canal is geopolitically vital, strained by climate stress and global supply chain tension.

6. FED and Financial System Reset: The Panic of 1907 led to the founding of the Federal Reserve in 1913. Today, leverage, volatility and rampant asset speculation suggest another FED reset is forming. The system is overextended. Only a FED les systemic restructuring can resolve this distortion. The Personal View has spoken endlessly of the much needed financial overhaul.

7. Isolationism: Pre-WWI, the US embraced isolation. Today, we see withdrawal from global institutions and security arrangements.

8. Social Strain & Fraud: In the early 1900s, addiction (cocaine, morphine, opium included in consumer goods) and insurance fraud surged. Today, we see echoes of opioid crises, cyber scams, and public distrust.

9. Gold: Between 1895 and 1913, gold wasn’t about price, but rather trust. Its value was instability. Since March 2021, when gold traded at $1690/oz, I’ve remained a resolute bull.

So what? Buy gold, uranium, and copper. Accumulate Tesla, BYD, defense, and energy transition names. Favor India, Vietnam, the Gulf, and the US over Europe. Long disruption, short complacency.