Sky-high duties will hit dozens of US trading partners, as Trump pushes for more “reciprocal” or “fair” trading terms.
The new tariff of 30% president Donald Trump levied on South African exports to the US, as well as tariffs up to 50% on other countries, have reignited global tensions as the 90 day pause on the tariffs announced in April came to an end last week.
Bianca Botes, director at Citadel Global, points out that it signals a sharp escalation in Trump’s protectionist agenda.
The latest round of tariffs include:
- Japan and South Korea: both were hit with 25% tariffs from 1 August. Trump cited trade imbalances and is pushing for local production in the US as the reason.
- Dozens are in the firing line, with over a dozen countries, including South Africa (30%), Bangladesh (35%), Brazil (50%) and Thailand (36%) facing increased tariffs. More are expected to follow, with an announcement of 30% tariffs for Mexico and the EU on the weekend.
- Brics, commodities and pharmaceuticals: A blanket 10% additional tariff on Brics imports was announced, along with a 50% duty on all copper imports, as well as a possible 200% tax on pharmaceuticals.
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Lacklustre reaction from markets in response to US tariffs
The market reaction was lacklustre and Botes says it seems that the markets are waiting for the dust to settle with minor responses in equities, which are currently hovering near record highs and some weakening in emerging market currencies, but not nearly to the extent that we witnessed in April.
She also noted a global pushback, with affected countries exploring retaliatory measures or seeking last–minute talks, while the White House insists that 1 August is a firm deadline.
“The rest of July could be pivotal. Between Trump’s hard tariff line and the Fed’s cautious monetary policy stance, economic uncertainty is running high. Trump’s aggressive approach may disrupt global supply chains and relations with allies and emerging markets alike. All eyes are now on incoming data and how markets, governments and central banks respond to what could be an unpredictable end to the month.”
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No mention of 10% US tariff for Brics in South Africa’s letter
Lisette IJssel de Schepper, chief economist at the Bureau for Economic Research, says although Trump warned that any country adopting the anti-American policies of Brics would face an additional 10% tariff, there was no mention of this in the letter South Africa received.
Fellow Brics member Brazil got slapped with a 50% tariff on Wednesday. “Unlike most countries facing reciprocal tariffs, Brazil runs a trade surplus with the US, importing more from the US than it exports, Trump makes it clear in his letter that the reason is political and he intends to penalise Brazil for the “witch hunt” on former president Jair Bolsonaro.”
De Schepper points out that Brazil is the US’s largest coffee supplier and a significant supplier of iron ore. “Trump, perhaps fearing that some of the reciprocal tariffs may be struck down by the courts, has ordered a so-called section 301 investigation into Brazil specifically. While this will take time, it could be a basis for sustained tariffs going forward.”
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Trump: US tariffs based on “common sense, deficits and raw numbers”
President Cyril Ramaphosa responded to the announcement of the US’s tariff by saying that the calculation it is based on uses the wrong data. Trump explained later in the week that the reciprocal tariffs are based on “common sense, deficits, how we have been over the years and raw numbers”.
She says arguing about the accuracy of data is therefore unlikely to sway his position. “Hopefully, by highlighting what South Africa can offer the US and being pragmatic, there is some scope to wiggle down the tariff, as some other countries have successfully done.
“However, the ‘worst case’ of a 10% universal tariff that government hoped for now looks to be turning into a best case. However, a fair point made by the Financial Times is that there is unlikely to be a ‘definitive policy’ in a Trump world. While we expect the impact on the entire economy to be relatively small, some motor manufacturing and pockets of agricultural produce will be hit hard.”
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US 30% tariff on SA a seismic event, not a diplomatic spat
Dr Ernst van Biljon, head lecturer and programme coordinator for M Com in supply chain management at the IMM Graduate School, says the sweeping 30% US tariff on “any and all South African products,” is far more than a diplomatic spat. It is a seismic event poised to send ripple effects through global and South African supply chains, demanding an urgent re-evaluation of supply chain strategies.
“While global markets have always been dynamic, this escalation signals a deeper shift: the weaponisation of trade policy as a geopolitical tool.”
He says from a global perspective, these tariffs immediately compel US-based importers and retailers to de-risk their supply chains. “The 30% duty instantly inflates the cost of South African goods, making them less competitive on American shelves. This is not just about price but about the very viability of product lines.
“Supply chains in the US will face pressure to absorb costs, pass them to consumers, or seek alternative sourcing. This could accelerate trends towards ‘friend-shoring’ or ‘near-shoring’, where companies prioritise suppliers in politically aligned or geographically closer nations.
“The ability to guarantee consistent product availability and predictable pricing, even if it means re-evaluating long-standing supplier relationships, will become a key differentiator.”
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US tariffs could trigger global re-routing of goods
Furthermore, he says, the tariffs could trigger a global re-routing of goods. “South African products previously destined for the US might now seek new markets, potentially increasing supply in other regions and creating new competitive dynamics.”
He warns that South African businesses cannot simply ‘find new markets’ or pivot messaging but must reimagine their entire value chain strategies. This means investing in regional value chain integration, leveraging SADC, Brics and AfCFTA frameworks and accelerating partial local beneficiation to improve resilience.
For South Africa, the implications are immediate and profound, Van Bijon says. “Businesses, particularly those in export-heavy sectors like agriculture, must urgently identify and cultivate new international markets beyond the US.
“This requires intensive market research and in the case of China, considerable persistence, to understand new consumer preferences and tailor product offerings and brand narratives for diverse audiences in Asia, the Gulf and within the African continent.
“Specific sectors such as citrus, wine, nuts and automotive components are directly in the crosshairs. Producers in these industries should consider building capacity for processing at source and establishing stronger ties with fast-growing Asian and Middle Eastern markets.”
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Waiving US tariffs on goods made in the US?
He says the US offer to waive tariffs if companies ‘build or manufacture product within the United States’ presents a stark choice. “While some large corporations might consider this, it threatens to hollow out local manufacturing capabilities and job creation.
“From a domestic supply chain standpoint, this situation could galvanise ‘Buy Local’ campaigns, fostering national pride and consumer loyalty towards South African-made goods to bolster internal demand.”
In addition, Van Biljon says, companies should assess opportunities to increase local supplier development and upstream integration to reduce reliance on single-market exports. “Strengthening links with regional and Asian supply partners can enhance both resilience and cost competitiveness.
“The true opportunity is not in survival but in transformation — future-proofing South Africa’s role in global supply chains through strategy, value creation and new market development.”
