As it stands, opinion is divided over what the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may elect to do later this week.
Forward rate agreements point to a cut of 25 basis points, which is echoed by Bloomberg consensus.
However, many local economists foresee a hold on rates being just as likely, given the lingering uncertainty in global markets.
The decision to hold rates at the most recent meeting in March was not unanimous, and another split vote is expected on Thursday, 29 May.
Four committee members voted to keep rates on hold, while two others preferred a 25 basis point cut.
Reminder
The SARB elected to keep interest rates on hold in the country when its Monetary Policy Committee met for the second time in 2025 on 20 March.
As a result, the repo rate currently stands at 7.5% while the prime lending rate is 11%.
Who are the SARB’s MPC?
The South African Reserve Bank’s monetary policy committee meets every second month to announce changes – if any – to the country’s repo and prime lending rates.
The meetings in 2025 are scheduled to take place in January, March, May, July, September and November – and always on a Thursday at 15:00.
Currently, the committee comprises of six people, with Lesetja Kganyago holding the position of governor of the SARB – and the deciding vote if necessary.
| Month | Date | Outcome |
| January | 30 January | 25 basis point cut |
| March | 20 March | No change |
| May | 29 May | ? |
| July | 31 July | |
| September | 18 September | |
| November | 20 November |
Monthly bond repayment table
The table below shows the current monthly bond repayments on various bond values over a 20-year period assuming no deposit and repayments at prime.
Should the SARB elect to keep rates on hold, there will be no change to the 11% monthly repayments.
However, if rates are cut by 25 basis points to 10.75%, these will be the new repayments as well as the monthly saving:
| Bond | Current (11%) | New (10.75%) | Saving |
| R750 000 | R7 741 | R7 614 | R127 |
| R800 000 | R8 258 | R8 122 | R136 |
| R850 000 | R8 774 | R8 629 | R145 |
| R900 000 | R9 290 | R9 137 | R153 |
| R950 000 | R9 806 | R9 645 | R161 |
| R1 000 000 | R10 322 | R10 152 | R170 |
| R1 500 000 | R15 483 | R15 228 | R255 |
| R2 000 000 | R20 644 | R20 305 | R339 |
| R2 500 000 | R25 805 | R25 381 | R424 |
| R3 000 000 | R30 966 | R30 457 | R509 |
| R3 500 000 | R36 127 | R35 533 | R594 |
| R4 000 000 | R41 288 | R40 609 | R679 |
| R4 500 000 | R46 448 | R45 685 | R763 |
| R5 000 000 | R51 609 | R50 761 | R848 |
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