The budget tabled by the Finance Minister will go before Parliament this week,with the ANC not having enough representatives to pass it alone.
While the DA and the ANC are at an advanced stage of negotiations to strike a deal on the 2025 budget, both parties may suffer the consequences of a compromise down the line.
This is the warning of an analyst, as parliament prepares to vote on the budget tabled by Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana last month.
A joint meeting of the Standing Committee on Finance and Select Committee on Finance will vote on the budget on Tuesday. Should it pass, it will proceed to the National Assembly for approval on Wednesday.
The ANC does not have enough representatives to pass the budget alone. Of the 400 seats in parliament, the party holds 159, so it must find another 42 votes. Its biggest government of national unity (GNU) partner, the DA, holds 87 seats.
The ANC has spent the last four days in intense and frantic meetings with its GNU partner, and those outside the coalition.
After a DA proposal was reportedly dismissed out of hand last Friday, the ANC extended a “reasonable proposal” to the DA over the weekend.
While a deal may be close, DA spokesperson for finance Dr Mark Burke told The Citizen his party would only support the budget if the ANC is willing to make some concessions.
“The ANC cannot keep operating as if it’s a majority party. The ANC will need to make real concessions that go beyond lip service for the DA to support this budget,” Burke said.
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Looking beyond the DA
The ANC is also in discussions with other parties to ensure it has the support it needs if talks with the DA collapse.
ActionSA leader Herman Mashaba told The Citizen his party had been approached by the ANC, and it had responded with several undisclosed conditions.
“We think that talks have gone well and await their decision. But we are not willing to agree to everything just to be in government,” he said.
Burke said he found it strange that the ANC is willing to consult political parties outside the GNU.
“The DA is in the GNU to drive growth and jobs. If the ANC relies on partners outside of the arrangement to pass an inefficient budget that is anti-poor, anti-jobs, and anti-growth, then it calls into question the underlying rationale for the DA being in the GNU,” he said.
The ANC, in turn, defended the decision to seek outside help, and denied it was a betrayal of the GNU coalition.
“Consensus is normal in a democracy. The GNU agreement does not say we cannot speak to other parties when we have shared views. This is a democratic process. Parliament has many parties,” ANC spokesperson Mahlengi Bhengu-Motsiri said.
A compromise, but at what cost?
Both Ntsikelelo Breakfast from the Nelson Mandela University (NMU) and Theo Neethling from the University of the Free State (UFS) told The Citizen that they were confident the ANC and DA will settle their differences to pass the budget.
However, Breakfast said compromising to stay in the GNU would affect both parties’ leadership at upcoming elective conferences.
He said there are some in the DA who believe that there is no need to be in coalition with the ANC when it had been abandoned by its national partner in Gauteng.
“There is a rebellion within the DA, especially in Gauteng. They think they got a raw deal and are not benefiting from anything. That issue can play out in the upcoming elective conference,” he said.
There are likewise factions in the ANC that see a partnership with the DA as a betrayal of the movement. They have advocated for coalitions with black progressive parties like the EFF and MK party.
“There is a little consternation within the ANC, but I think the main role players, such as President Ramaphosa, are in favour of working with the DA,” Neethling said of these groups.
‘Too much at stake’
While the DA has threatened to walk away from the GNU over the budget and several other issues, Neethling said there is too much at stake for the party.
“They would not just be walking away from Cabinet positions, but it would be a massive blow to finding middle ground in this country between the two major parties.
“This would leave the radical parties in charge of economic affairs, and I think the DA is aware of that,” he said.
Even though Neethling believes the DA and the ANC will strike a deal, he warned there are always opportunists who could want to take advantage of the situation.
“Both the MK and the EFF are against the hike in VAT but you know with politicians there is always a possibility of political opportunism,” he said.
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